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Record Heat Wave in Europe takes 35,000 lives
Sudden Increase in Oil Reserves
The End of Oil is Closer than You Think
The Future of Personal Transportation
Transportation Energy Requirements
RECORD HEAT WAVE IN EUROPE TAKES 35,000 LIVES
Voted
one of the Top 10 Environmental News Stories
of 2003 by Citizens' Institute for Environmental Studies,
Green Foundation and others.
October 9, 2003-9
Copyright © 2003 Earth Policy Institute
RECORD HEAT WAVE IN EUROPE TAKES
35,000 LIVES
Far Greater Losses May Lie Ahead
A record heat wave scorched
Europe in August 2003, claiming an estimated 35,000 lives.
In France alone, 14,802 people died from the searing
temperatures—more than 19
times the death toll from the SARS epidemic worldwide. In
the worst heat spell in decades, temperatures in France
soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius) and
remained unusually high for two weeks.
This summer's high temperatures also hit other European
countries. Germany saw some 7,000 people die from the heat.
Spain and Italy each suffered heat-related losses of nearly
4,200 lives. The heat wave claimed at least 1,300 lives in
Portugal and up to 1,400 lives in the Netherlands.
In London—which on August 10th
recorded its first triple-digit Fahrenheit temperature—an
estimated 900 people died from the heat. Heat-related
fatalities across the United Kingdom reached 2,045. In
Belgium, temperatures higher than any in the Royal
Meteorological Society's register dating back to 1833
brought 150 deaths. Since reports are not yet available for
all European countries, the total heat death toll for the
continent is likely to be substantially larger. (See
data.)
August 2003 was the warmest August on record in the northern
hemisphere, but according to the projections of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), even more
extreme weather events lie ahead. By the end of the century,
the world's average temperature is projected to increase by
2.5-10.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius). As
the mercury climbs, more frequent and more severe heat waves
are in store.
Though heat waves rarely are given adequate attention, they
claim more lives each year than floods, tornadoes, and
hurricanes combined. Heat waves are a silent killer, mostly
affecting the elderly, the very young, or the chronically
ill.
Under normal circumstances, humans maintain a body
temperature around 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit. When subject to
extreme heat, the body attempts to maintain this ideal
temperature by varying blood circulation and perspiring.
When the internal body temperature rises above 104 degrees
Fahrenheit, vital organs are at risk. If the body
temperature is not brought down, death follows.
The threshold ambient temperature at which more people are
at risk for heat-related health problems varies greatly by
location. In general, when summer temperatures range 10
degrees Fahrenheit or more above the norm, incidences of
heat-related illness increase dramatically. High humidity
compounds the effects of high heat by reducing evaporation,
rendering perspiration a less-effective cooling mechanism.
When excessive heat prevails for more than two consecutive
days, the risk of heat sickness and death escalates. Health
and social services may be overwhelmed.
Heat waves take the greatest human toll in cities. Urban
centers, where the area of heat-absorbing dark roofs and
pavement exceeds the area covered by cooling vegetation, are
like "heat islands" and can be as much as 10 degrees
Fahrenheit warmer than the surrounding countryside. While
people in rural areas generally get some relief from the
heat when temperatures fall at night, urban areas stay
warmer around the clock. Air pollution, which usually is
worse in cities than in the countryside, can also exacerbate
the health-damaging effects of high temperatures by further
stressing the body's respiratory and circulatory systems.
Several of the worst heat waves of the twentieth century
occurred in U.S. cities. In 1955, an eight-day run of
temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit in Los Angeles left
946 people dead. In 1972, New York City suffered a two-week
heat wave that claimed 891 lives. More recently, an extreme
heat wave in Chicago in 1995 killed 739 people in a matter
of days. Slow political recognition of the threat and an
overloaded response system worsened the effects of the
weather anomaly.
A lack of public recognition of the danger that high
temperatures pose adds to the lethality of heat waves. Heat
wave warnings often do not carry the weight of other natural
disaster alerts. Except during major outbreaks, heat-related
deaths often go unreported, and few governments
systematically keep records of them.
Even once a heat wave has passed, politicians are reluctant
to acknowledge its toll. Chicago's mayor denied the severity
of the city's 1995 heat wave. In Europe, it took over a
month for France's government to release heat wave fatality
estimates that corroborated estimates from overwhelmed
undertakers. Several neighboring governments are still
challenging reports from medical examiners.
Even in India, where heat-related fatalities in the
thousands during pre-monsoonal high temperatures are no
longer uncommon, the National Disaster Management Cell does
not classify heat waves as a natural disaster. While
accurate data are hard to come by, it appears that India has
seen the number of deaths due to heat climb over the years
as populations have grown and temperatures have risen. In
May 2003, peak temperatures of 113-117 degrees Fahrenheit
(45-49 degrees Celsius) claimed over 1,600 lives throughout
the country. In the state of Andhra Pradesh alone, some
1,200 people died from the heat. A year earlier, a one-week
heat wave with temperatures topping 122 degrees Fahrenheit
took over 1,000 lives.
Over the last 25 years the average global temperature rose
by 1 degree Fahrenheit, or 0.6 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's
projected rise in temperature for this century is a global
average, but the temperature is expected to rise more over
land, where people live, than over sea. As temperatures
continue to climb, the toll of heat waves in individual
countries could jump from the thousands to the tens of
thousands. The World Meteorological Organization estimates
that the number of heat-related fatalities could double in
less than 20 years.
Already we are seeing evidence of more frequent heat waves.
In India, death tolls from heat that were recorded over an
entire summer some 10 years ago are now occurring in just
one week. In the United States, a 1998 study of summertime
temperatures using data from 1949 to 1995 found that the
frequency of extremely hot and humid days and the occurrence
of multiple-day heat waves increased significantly during
that period. Some of the increase is due to urbanization, a
trend that is expected to continue for the foreseeable
future.
Although the historical data for heat waves leave much to be
desired, we can say with confidence that the August heat
wave in Europe has broken all records for heat-induced human
fatalities. As awareness of the scale of this tragedy
spreads, it is likely to generate pressure to reduce carbon
emissions. For many of the millions who suffered through
these record heat waves and the relatives of the tens of
thousands who died, cutting carbon emissions is becoming a
pressing personal issue.
Copyright © 2003
Earth Policy Institute
